New Delhi: The opinion poll suggests that the Narendra Modi government is likely to secure a third term, buoyed by its robust performance in North India. Conversely, Congress and its allies are projected to face defeat but are anticipated to put up a strong fight in South India through the formation of the INDIA bloc. According to the poll, the NDA is expected to gain over 300 seats in the Lok Sabha, with the INDIA bloc securing 166 seats and others claiming 42 seats.
Key states such as Uttar Pradesh, Gujarat, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, and Bihar are predicted to favor the saffron party. A surprising outcome is expected in West Bengal, where the BJP is projected to win 19 seats out of 42, while TMC is expected to secure 22 seats. In the southern state of Karnataka, the BJP is anticipated to perform well, winning 24 out of the 28 Lok Sabha seats.
Let's compare the predicted seat numbers for the 2024 Lok Sabha elections with the actual seat numbers won by parties in the 2019 elections:
Uttar Pradesh:
- 2019: Total Seats 80, BJP 62, Congress 1, Others 17
- 2024 Prediction: Total Seats 80, BJP+ 72, Congress+ 1, Others 7
Bihar:
- 2019: Total Seats 40, BJP 17, Congress 9, Others 14
- 2024 Prediction: Total Seats 40, BJP+ 32, Congress+ 8
Jharkhand:
- 2019: Total Seats 14, BJP 11, Congress 1, Others 2
- 2024 Prediction: Total Seats 14, BJP+ 12, Congress+ 2
West Bengal:
- 2019: Total Seats 42, BJP 18, TMC 22, Congress 2
- 2024 Prediction: Total Seats 42, BJP+ 19, TMC 22, Congress 1
Madhya Pradesh:
- 2019: Total Seats 29, BJP 28, Congress 1
- 2024 Prediction: Total Seats 29, BJP+ 27, Congress 2
Chhattisgarh:
- 2019: Total Seats 11, BJP 9, Congress 2
- 2024 Prediction: Total Seats 11, BJP+ 10, Congress 1
Rajasthan:
- 2019: Total Seats 25, BJP 24, Congress 1
- 2024 Prediction: Total Seats 25, BJP+ 25, Congress 0
Gujarat:
- 2019: Total Seats 26, BJP 26
- 2024 Prediction: Total Seats 26, BJP+ 26, Congress 0
Goa:
- 2019: Total Seats 2, BJP 1, Congress 1
- 2024 Prediction: Total Seats 2, BJP+ 1, Congress 1
Maharashtra:
- 2019: Total Seats 48, BJP 23, Congress 5, Others 20
- 2024 Prediction: Total Seats 48, BJP+ 22, Congress+ 26
Delhi:
- 2019: Total Seats 7, BJP 7
- 2024 Prediction: Total Seats 7, BJP 7, Congress 0, Others 0
Kerala:
- 2019: Total Seats 20, BJP 0, Congress 15, Others 5
- 2024 Prediction: Total Seats 20, BJP+ 0, Congress+ 20
Tamil Nadu:
- 2019: Total Seats 39, BJP 0, Congress 8, Others 31
- 2024 Prediction: Total Seats 39, BJP+ 0, Congress+ 39
Telangana:
- 2019: Total Seats 17, BJP 4, Congress 3, Others 10
- 2024 Prediction: Total Seats 17, BJP+ 3, Congress+ 10, Others 4
Andhra Pradesh:
- 2019: Total Seats 25, BJP 0, Congress 0, Others 25
- 2024 Prediction: Total Seats, BJP+ 0, Congress+ 0, Others 25
Karnataka:
- 2019: Total Seats 28, BJP 25, Congress 2, Others 1
- 2024 Prediction: Total Seats 28, BJP+ 24, Congress 4
Himachal Pradesh:
- 2019: Total Seats 4, BJP 4
- 2024 Prediction: Total Seats 4, BJP+ 4, Congress+ 0
Haryana:
- 2019: Total Seats 10, BJP 8, Congress 2
- 2024 Prediction: Total Seats 10, BJP+ 8, Congress+ 2
Punjab:
- 2019: Total Seats 13, BJP 2, Congress 8, Others 3
- 2024 Prediction: Total Seats 13, BJP+ 2, Congress+ 5, Others 6
Uttarakhand:
- 2019: Total Seats 5, BJP 5
- 2024 Prediction: Total Seats 5, BJP+ 5, Congress+ 0
Jammu and Kashmir:
- 2019: Total Seats 6, BJP 3, Congress 1, Others 2
- 2024 Prediction: Total Seats 5, BJP+ 2, Congress+ 3
Assam:
- 2019: Total Seats 14, BJP 9, Congress 3, Others 2
- 2024 Prediction: Total Seats 14, BJP+ 12, Congress+ 2
(Source: Mood of the Nation Survey, India Today)
